DR,
Nowhere in your narrative do you mention that your client wishes to have actual sales orders influence production and the production plan. Therefore, I must assume that the client does not wish to allow Sales to influence his production.
In this case, in choosing between strategy 40 and strategy 10, you would use Strategy 10, which involves driving your production entirely from your forecast. Consumption by actual sales, and increase of production based on actual sales in excess of plan, does not happen. The plan is the only demand that is considered.
Best Regards,
DB49